In the last week of December, seeing the coming of 2017 is coming to an end, the steel market seems to have entered the cooling channel in the near future. For the price after year, the market is very concerned about the price. In this article, I will make briefings on recent domestic and international events and steel market performance analysis.
In the U.S., on December 20, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that comprehensively reforms the U.S. tax system, reducing U.S. corporate income tax from the current 35% to 15% and drastically reducing the U.S. macroeconomic performance. Income tax of overseas American corporate repatriated to the United States dropped from 35% to 7% -14.5% range, which has markedly positive effect on the U.S. economy. In addition, the total number of existing home sales hit a 11-year high in November, The October monthly price index (HPI) shot up again to 0.5% from a month earlier than market expectations, signaling a hysteresis in the U.S. housing market and regaining growth momentum. In Europe, the November index turned positive for the first time in 17 years, Consumer confidence index 0.5 for the first time to further prove that consumer spending in the euro area pick up, while France's third-quarter GDP unexpectedly slightly up to a seasonally adjusted up 0.6% increase, year on year increase also accelerated to 2.3% for 2011 Since then, the overall international economic situation has been optimistic overall, which will have a positive impact on the domestic economic development.
View of the domestic market, the end of December, the capital will face a seasonal tightening, but in view of this year in June, the central bank has stabilized investor expectations ahead of schedule, coupled with the relatively relaxed operation in November, does not rule out the final trend in December capital also Will be better than expected. It is also noteworthy that with the introduction of real estate tax, housing prices in some 34 cities with low industrial output and population will be restrained, because the price support in these areas is not as good as that of the first and second tier cities The collection of real estate tax may accelerate the behavior of throwing houses, etc. on the fringe cities in the third and fourth tier cities and increase housing supply, which will have an inhibitory effect on house prices. However, real estate taxes will not be detrimental to house prices in major cities such as the first and second tier cities , But will increase the rental market price. Overall, the economy has shown a "new normal" development. Supply-side structural reforms and environmental protection will continue to be an important starting point for the future and will play a boosting role in the prices of bulk commodities.
Looking at the recent steel market, the market performance unspeakable.
Building materials, the impact of seasonal demand factors, downstream demand weakened, continue to accumulate inventory and the northbound timber under the impact of low-cost resources make the spot price of steel significantly loosening, the decline in the coil line has expanded signs than the previous, as of December 27, the national 20mm Rebar average price fell to 4494 yuan / ton; and last week, the price of hot rolled coil continued to pull up slightly, the current volume of hot rolled coil is still showing a slow decline in short-term supply and demand in a weak balance; the current plate The fundamentals and profits of varieties are relatively stable. Recently, with the weakening of the threads, the output of the overall medium-sized steel mills has slightly increased, with prices showing mainly weak shocks.
The concept of cold-rolled, last week's overall high price consolidation operation, the volume affected by the impact of futures turmoil weakened the recent major steel mills introduced in January prices are maintained upward, making the business worry about the market after the year. Compared to the recent weak performance of finished products, raw materials, the relative market price differentiation.
In terms of iron ore, the market prices of domestic ore-producing areas fluctuated last week, while the dry bulk shipping market continued to decline. The general carbon scrap continued to rise. With the further increase of scrap purchase prices by Shagang, 400 yuan, once again set a new high during the year; Tangshan billet is down the channel, as of December 27, Tangshan local and Changli Cape factory tax price 3690 yuan / ton;
Spot price of coking coal coke continued to strengthen, especially the performance of coke is more prominent last week, the mainstream area up a total of 750 yuan / ton
Taken together, the U.S. economy has maintained a steady economic recovery and the euro area has performed well. The domestic market has been developing steadily and steadily under the support of supply-side reform. Recently, the black line shows that its performance is relatively pessimistic and raw materials are generally optimistic. For the post-New Year's price, the editor believes that the fall of long products prices has become an inevitable trend, and the price of printed or reduced volume will be somewhat narrowed. It is understood that the end of the major thin steel mills into maintenance, while the majority of private-owned plant recently suffered a shutdown, the market is expected to January less than the volume of the market, the market price decline will not be much. As for long products, with the upcoming delivery month 01 of the contract, the current spread needs to be fixed urgently. In addition, the infrastructure projects started to decrease gradually by the end of the year, and the demand will be further weakened.
